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Ten Great Ideas About Chance

Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms

About the book

A history book, a probability book, a philosophy book: ten fundamental ideas that have shaped our understanding of chance, from measurement to induction. This reading was planned for the summer of 2025 and postponed; the schedule below is the plan, not a record.

Prerequisites

A basic familiarity with probability and statistics will be helpful; the discussions are largely self-contained.

Planned sessions

  1. 21 Jul Measurement (Part 1) Introduction to foundational concepts of measurement in probability
  2. 22 Jul Measurement (Part 2) Further exploration of measurement in probability theory
  3. 23 Jul Judgment (Part 1) Examining probability as degree of belief
  4. 24 Jul Judgment (Part 2) Continuing the exploration of subjective probability
  5. 25 Jul Psychology (Part 1) The psychology of probabilistic reasoning
  6. 28 Jul Psychology (Part 2) Psychological heuristics and biases in probability judgment
  7. 29 Jul Frequency (Part 1) Understanding probability through frequency interpretations
  8. 30 Jul Frequency (Part 2) Applications of frequency-based probability
  9. 31 Jul Mathematics (Part 1) Mathematical foundations of probability theory
  10. 1 Aug Mathematics (Part 2) Advanced mathematical concepts in probability
  11. 4 Aug Inverse Inference (Part 1) Introduction to Bayesian reasoning
  12. 5 Aug Inverse Inference (Part 2) Applications of Bayesian inference
  13. 6 Aug Unification (Part 1) Unifying different interpretations of probability
  14. 7 Aug Unification (Part 2) Synthesis of probability concepts across disciplines
  15. 8 Aug Algorithmic Randomness (Part 1) Computational perspectives on randomness
  16. 11 Aug Algorithmic Randomness (Part 2) Algorithmic complexity and randomness measures
  17. 12 Aug Physical Chance (Part 1) Probability in physical systems
  18. 13 Aug Physical Chance (Part 2) Quantum probability and indeterminism
  19. 14 Aug Induction (Part 1) Inductive reasoning and probability
  20. 15 Aug Induction (Part 2) Philosophical implications of probabilistic induction